Forex Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

US stock market: bad news fully priced in

The S&P 500 had its worst quarter in three years. Investors are shifting capital from North America to Europe. Once-booming US tech stocks have collapsed. Major banks and respected institutions are raising the odds of a recession for the American economy. That's a lot of bad news for a broad stock index, isn't it? However, buying the dip towards the lower boundary of the sideways range at 5,500–5,790 has borne fruit — just in time for America's "Liberation Day".

Performance of US stock indices

Donald Trump's policies have caused turmoil not only in financial markets but also among the general public. According to the latest Associated Press poll, nearly 60% of Americans disapprove of the president's protectionist stance, and 58% are dissatisfied with his overall handling of the US economy. The market sell-off reflects investor skepticism, but the Republican leader remains undeterred. He insists the country must endure short-term pain to reclaim a golden era for America.

That "Liberation Day" will come on April 2, when the White House is set to announce new tariffs. According to Wall Street Journal sources, the president is weighing two options: blanket 20% import tariffs or tailored, reciprocal tariffs. The former could send another shock through financial markets, while the latter might calm nerves.

Following JP Morgan and Moody's Analytics, Goldman Sachs has raised the probability of a US recession from 20% to 35%. Yet investors have found new reasons for optimism. After a massive sell-off in tech stocks, forward P/E ratios are now approaching historical averages. In other words, stocks are no longer overvalued, making them more attractive.

US tech sector P/E trends

The White House's new tariffs could also slow capital outflows from North America to Europe. A full-blown trade war would likely hit the EU harder due to its large trade surplus with the United States. Moreover, part of the capital shift was driven by a 4.6% gain in the euro against the dollar in the first quarter. As a result, European investors lost about 13% on US-listed assets.

According to Wells Fargo, the dollar's January-March slide was temporary. Looking ahead, tariffs and trade tensions could boost the greenback by 1.5% to 11%, with maximum gains expected if America's trade partners avoid a full-scale retaliatory response.

From a technical standpoint, the S&P 500 has bounced off the lower boundary of the previously established 5,500-5,790 consolidation range. Long positions opened at the 5,500 level appear to be worth holding. A break above the resistance levels at 5,625 (pivot) and 5,670 (fair value) would allow for additional long positions.

 

$10 Billion: The Price of Mistakes? J&J Back in Legal Storm

Wall Street Reels, But S&P 500 and Nasdaq Survive
U.S. stocks ended Tuesday with gains in the key S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, despite palpable nervousness gripping investors ahead of Donald Trump's announcement of new trade tariffs.

Investors on edge: markets in turmoil
The financial markets have been experiencing high volatility in recent weeks. The reason is fears that the US President's large-scale tariff initiatives could slow down the country's economic growth and spur inflation. While waiting for specifics from the White House, investors are maneuvering between caution and hope.

Markets are waiting for signals from the Rose Garden
All eyes are on Trump's speech tomorrow, scheduled for 4:00 PM ET in the White House Rose Garden. He is expected to announce the details of his tariff policy, and this may clarify at least part of the situation shrouded in guesswork and rumors.

However, even if clarity appears in terms of measures, investors will still face general uncertainty - both regarding the consequences of these steps and the possible reaction of US partners in the trade arena. All this makes the direction of further market movement vague and difficult to predict.

Swings of the day: from minus to confident point
Amid this tense uncertainty, all three major US indexes showed fluctuations throughout the trading session, jumping between growth and decline. Only in the second half of the day did positive dynamics prevail.

The bottom line for the day is as follows: the broad market S&P 500 index added 21.22 points, or 0.38%, to close at 5,633.07. The high-tech Nasdaq Composite strengthened by 150.60 points, which is an increase of 0.87%, ending the day at 17,449.89. But the Dow Jones industrial average slightly fell - by 11.80 points, or 0.03%, to 41,989.96.

Technology Takes Revenge: Nasdaq Back on Top
On Tuesday, it was the technology sector that became the engine of growth on Wall Street. After a difficult start to the year, the previously damaged IT giants began to confidently regain their positions, pulling the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices up with them.

Tesla Accelerates Ahead of the Report
Tesla stood out, its shares jumped by 3.6% amid expectations of fresh statistics on car deliveries for the first quarter, which will be released on Wednesday. Investors are betting on positive figures and waiting for a signal of demand recovery.

Other representatives of the so-called "magnificent seven" - Amazon, Microsoft and Meta Platforms (banned in Russia) - also showed confident growth, adding from 1% to 1.8%. This strengthened the position of Nasdaq and breathed technological optimism into the market.

Doctors and airlines drag the market down
But not everything was so rosy on the markets. The S&P 500 was under pressure from the healthcare and transportation sectors, which ended up in the red amid corporate and legal setbacks.

Johnson & Johnson was the real outsider of the day. The pharmaceutical giant's shares fell by 7.6%, showing the worst result among all the companies in the index. The reason was a blow in court: an American bankruptcy judge rejected J&J's offer to settle claims for $10 billion. We are talking about a long-standing dispute over talc-based products, which tens of thousands of plaintiffs associate with cancer.

The airline market is on the decline: anxiety over demand
Airlines also showed weakness. Shares of Delta, American Airlines and Southwest fell in the range of 2.4% to 5.9%. This was the result of analysts at Jefferies revising investment ratings downwards. Financial experts have expressed concern that macroeconomic uncertainty and fluctuations in consumer sentiment could negatively impact demand for both business and leisure travel.

IPO Newbies Are Rocking the Market: Newsmax and CoreWeave Are Riding High
Amid the general market turbulence, some newcomers to the exchange have become the real stars of the trading session. Among them is media player Newsmax, whose shares have demonstrated a dizzying rise for the second day in a row.

After a stunning start on the New York Stock Exchange on Monday, when the company's shares rose by more than 700%, they jumped another 208% on Tuesday. Given Newsmax's politically charged and Trump-friendly image, investor interest was literally explosive.

CoreWeave Startup Rising After a Shaky Debut
Another participant in the recent IPO, AI company CoreWeave, has also pleased investors. Despite an uncertain first step after going public on Friday, its shares added an impressive 41.8% on Tuesday, exceeding the announced offering price. This signals strong demand for AI stocks despite market risks.

Gold finds support, Asia wavers
While some investors are chasing the hype of new releases, others are turning their attention to more conservative assets. Gold prices have begun to show signs of recovery — the metal is traditionally seen as a "safe haven" amid geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

Asian markets, meanwhile, remained in a range of moderate volatility. Despite a shaky start, they managed to avoid sharp declines, following a more confident finish to trading on Wall Street. European futures are so far signaling a calm but cautious start.

Tariff time bomb
Investors are still keeping in mind the "hour X" — Donald Trump's planned statement on Wednesday, which he has dubbed "Liberation Day." In essence, we are talking about a large-scale initiative to introduce new import duties - both against strategic opponents and traditional US allies.

The announcement ceremony is scheduled for 20:00 GMT and will take place in a landmark location - the Rose Garden near the White House. And although market participants are waiting for specifics, no real relief from uncertainty is expected yet.

Quick measures, tough responses
Perhaps the most alarming detail is the lack of a negotiating phase. According to available data, tariff measures will be introduced immediately, which sharply reduces the room for diplomatic maneuvers and, on the contrary, increases the likelihood of a quick response from the affected countries.

This creates the basis for increased volatility in the markets in the coming days - from exchange rates to stock indices. Analysts do not rule out sharp jumps and new nervous sell-offs.

Tariff barrage: metal, cars and China under attack
The White House has already taken the first steps in implementing a tough trade strategy. Donald Trump has imposed tariffs on key import categories, from aluminum and steel to automobiles. He has also significantly increased tariffs on a whole range of Chinese products. These actions have resonated in global markets, increasing fears of a trade confrontation that could paralyze global economic growth.

Economists are sounding the alarm: the threat of a full-scale trade war is becoming increasingly real. Tensions between Washington and its main trading partners, including Beijing, threaten to go beyond diplomacy and enter the phase of a systemic conflict that could hit global supply chains and slow down the recovery of the world economy.

Gold shines amid anxiety
Amid growing risks, investors have flocked to safe haven assets, and, above all, to gold. The "yellow metal" is confidently storming new historical heights, having exceeded the psychological mark of $3,000 per ounce.

Gold has already gained 19% since the start of the year, continuing a strong upward trend after a remarkable 27% gain in 2024, the best year for the precious metal in a decade. The rise in prices reflects not only fears of geopolitical and economic shocks, but also growing demand from central banks and large institutional players seeking to preserve capital in an unstable environment.

Not gold, but a barometer of fear
With markets reeling from conflicting signals – from tariff threats to volatile inflation and unclear interest rate prospects – gold is once again becoming a universal indicator of anxiety. Its rise speaks not only of the demand for stability, but also of how deeply rooted the fears among investors are.

 

US Market News Digest for April 7

S&P 500 futures hover at critical support: rebound or breakout?
On April 7, futures on the S&P 500 index approached the key support level of 4,953. Holding above this zone could pave the way for a rebound targeting 5,100 and 5,274. However, if selling pressure intensifies, a drop to 4,612 cannot be ruled out. This setup creates potential for both aggressive short-term entries and defensive strategies in the event of a breakout.

The current technical outlook marks a critical decision point for traders, especially amid heightened volatility driven by geopolitical tensions.

Tariff shock: market loses capital
The Trump administration has escalated trade pressure, becoming the key trigger behind a sharp decline in US equity indices. A 20% plunge from February highs has already eroded investor confidence and stoked fears of a looming recession.

In moments like these, the ability to spot opportunities becomes paramount. Short-term corrections offer profit potential, especially in volatile assets and indices.

Trillions wiped out: what comes next for market?
In just two trading days, the S&P 500 index has lost more than $5.4 trillion in market capitalization. This shift is transforming investor behavior: passive strategies are being abandoned in favor of more active portfolio management. The focus is now on safe-haven assets, short-term speculation, and diversification.

Current market dynamics demand flexibility and swift decision-making. Right now, smart moves can create an edge amid widespread uncertainty.

One of the worst sell-offs in history
The US market is experiencing the fourth-biggest decline in its history. Washington's introduction of trade tariffs has triggered a chain reaction of capital flight, investor panic, and a sharp increase in economic risk. Money is moving into regions perceived as less vulnerable to geopolitical shocks.

Even in these conditions, trading opportunities remain. Rebounds, hedging, and index strategies via futures or CFDs offer ways to turn turbulence into tactical advantage.

As a reminder, InstaForex offers optimal conditions for trading stock indices, stocks, and bonds, allowing clients to profit from shifts in market sentiment.

 

Market gives away its secret

The world is a stage, and people are its actors. Tragicomedies happen every day in financial markets, but what happened at the start of the second week of April is mesmerizing. In just a few minutes, the capitalization of the US stock market surged by $2.4 trillion thanks to a false message on social media. Its denial by the White House caused the S&P 500 to plummet. What's the message? What did the rollercoaster ride on Wall Street reveal? The nerves of investors, stretched like strings? Or was it the time to buy American stocks?

If you want to make money, use your imagination. If you're thinking about how to make big money, come up with something that will make your hair stand on end.

Someone created a fake Bloomberg account on social media, posted news from the popular media agency for a long time, and gained millions of followers with one goal. On one spring day, they posted information that Hassett was considering a 90-day pause in tariffs against all countries except China. The news was so hot that it was immediately picked up by CNBC and Reuters. The S&P 500 surged, only to fall again.

The S&P 500's reaction to the White House's tariff pause news

No doubt, investors are unnerved. They are worried about what the White House's protectionist policies might do to the US economy. Tariffs on imports and trade wars threaten a global recession. When fear rules market sentiment, no one wants to buy stocks.

On the other hand, the S&P 500 fell by 20% from its February peak, entering the bear market. This was the second-fastest slump since 1945. The first occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic, forcing the Federal Reserve to throw a lifeline to the US economy with mind-boggling monetary stimuli.

The dynamics of the S&P 500's transitions into a bear market

In such conditions, investors are trying to puzzle out whether the worst has already happened and it is now time for negotiations and tariff rollbacks. Following this logic, is it the right time to buy stocks? If fear shifts to greed, the S&P 500 rally could be so fast that it will take your breath away. The fake news on social media is proof of that. What is needed is one good piece of news to enable the broad stock index to rise from the ashes.

I don't think the tough times are behind us. At least one trade war, between the US and China, has already started. According to UBS, a recession in the US economy could result in zero corporate profit growth, as every 1 percentage point drop in GDP subtracts 6.9 percentage points from this indicator.

Technically, on the Daily Chart of the S&P 500, a bounce from the support level at 4,905 suggests that the broad stock index may have found a bottom.

There is a high probability of consolidation in the range of 4,900 to 5,200 or 4,900-5,330. It makes sense to sell during a rise to its upper border and buy during a drop to the lower border. In the latter case, you need to think three times, as catching falling knives is extremely dangerous.
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