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«Bull Trap»: Bitcoin market remains under pressure

Bitcoin's recent surge, which has allowed it to reach a two-week high, may be short-lived due to the ongoing market uncertainty that is holding back investors. The lack of confident momentum, low trading volumes and macroeconomic tensions create the risk of a «bull trap» – a situation where the market remains without a clear direction.

Analysts identify factors that continue to negatively affect bitcoin: increased tariff tensions, inflationary threats, and geopolitical instability. They also warn that the market is particularly fragile right now: volumes are low, retail investor activity is minimal, and major players are refraining from action, which indicates hidden risks.

In March, bitcoin fluctuates in the range of $76-$95 thousand. The BTC financing ratio, reflecting the difference between spot and futures prices, has turned negative, indicating traders' unwillingness to overpay for long positions. In addition, the rates for borrowing stablecoins such as USDT and USDC on the Aave platform dropped to 4%, demonstrating a decrease in risk tolerance.

 

Historical record: the price of gold exceeded $3100

Gold has set a new historical record amid the introduction of new US tariffs, which have exacerbated fears of a global trade war. These circumstances have increased the demand for the metal, which is a protective asset in the face of economic uncertainty.

Since the start of trading, the spot price of gold has increased by 0.36%, reaching $3067 per ounce, and during the session it updated the record to $3111. During the week, the metal rose by 2%, continuing to rise for the fourth week in a row.

Experts attribute the increase to uncertainty around tariffs, a likely reduction in interest rates, geopolitical conflicts and the purchase of gold by central banks. Analysts emphasize that the US trade policy and the slowdown in the global economy are playing into the hands of the yellow metal.

An additional factor was the tariffs, which are due to take effect on April 2 and may increase inflation, slow down economic growth and exacerbate trade disputes. Experts continue to predict a bullish trend for gold, which retains a strong position against the backdrop of macroeconomic instability.

 

Bitcoin is losing ground: investors are concerned about macroeconomics and US decisions

In the morning, the capitalization of the crypto market amounted to $2.756 trillion, having decreased by $17 billion. The share of BTC is 59.1%, ETH – 7.92%. Bitcoin has been trading in the range of $81,565-88,765 over the past week, ending with a 4.29% drop to $82,389. The market was influenced by geopolitics and macroeconomics, including Trump's trade policy, which increased investor concern.

On March 31, the BTC exchange rate dropped to $81.278 after Trump's statements about duties on Russian oil if the crisis around Ukraine continues. By noon, bitcoin had grown and was trading at $82,084. Technical analysis shows that bitcoin was unable to overcome the resistance of $88,600, maintaining a «bearish» trend. Support is at $81,000, and its breakdown may lead to a drop to $76,000.

The growth attempts recorded at the beginning of the week eventually led to the formation of a stable downward trend. The market situation remains closely linked to the dynamics of US stock indexes and largely depends on the news dictated by the actions of the Trump administration, inflation indicators and decisions of the US Federal Reserve.

 

Why tariffs may trigger rally instead of crash?

The current panic in the markets may be overblown. If tomorrow's tariffs prove to be less damaging than expected, we could witness a short but sharp rebound, particularly in the S&P 500. However, any long position at this stage would be countertrend and require strict risk management.

As the first quarter draws to a close, the stock market remains under intense pressure. Investors are holding their breath ahead of tomorrow's announcement on reciprocal tariffs, a decision that could set the tone for the start of the second quarter. In such a climate of fear, opportunities for a rebound often emerge. The question is where to find support and when to act.

Current situation: no safe haven for indices
The S&P 500 is currently trading near 5,590 points, while the Nasdaq 100 is hovering around 19,260. Both indices have come under pressure in recent weeks not only due to geopolitical and tariff-related concerns but also because of structural weakening in demand for US equities.

The S&P 500 entered technical correction territory and declined 10% from its mid-February peak. The Nasdaq is showing similar signs of weakness.

CFTC data confirms the trend: net long positions in both indices have been shrinking for several weeks. The market is under pressure not only from tariff concerns but also from fears of a longer-term capital shift toward European assets.

For the S&P 500, the nearest support lies at 5,535, the local low from last week and the lower boundary of the current channel. Below that is 5,480, which corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the rally since October.

Resistance levels are located at 5,650 and 5,705.

Bullish scenario: if the S&P 500 manages to hold above 5,535 after the tariff announcement and forms a bullish daily candle, this could be the first signal of a rebound toward the 5,650–5,705 range.

Bearish scenario: a drop below 5,480 would pave the way for a move down to the 5,400–5,350 zone, where medium-term support levels from late last year are located.

For the Nasdaq 100, the nearest support stands at 19,120, a trendline extending from early October. The next key level is 18,800, which combines Fibonacci support with an area of interest for institutional investors.

Resistance could be found at 19,500 and 19,800.

Entry points: for short-term traders looking to play a bounce, the market's reaction to 19,120 will be critical. If the level holds and a reversal pattern forms, this could present an opportunity for a short-term long position targeting 19,500.

A break below 18,800 would open the door to a full-fledged bearish trend, with targets in the 18,000–18,200 range.

Fundamental perspective: risk or opportunity?
The central question of the week is tomorrow's tariff announcement. It is known that the United States will introduce aggressive measures, but the scope and scale of the tariffs remain unclear. If it turns out that the new tariffs are less severe than feared and if some companies, such as TSMC, receive exemptions, this could become the catalyst for a market reversal as early as Wednesday or Thursday.

This is especially relevant given the current state of capitulation. Defensive sectors are also under pressure, gold is retreating after recent gains, and investor positioning remains heavily reduced.

That said, the long-term trend continues to pose challenges for the market. The potential for sustained capital outflows to Europe, growing protectionist rhetoric, and a lack of international allies could continue to weigh on US indices into the second quarter.

 

Trump's tariff policy may lead to the biggest trade crisis of the century

US President Donald Trump is preparing to announce the introduction of large-scale trade restrictions, which may become the most significant in the last century. The announcement is expected to take place on Wednesday at an event at the White House, but details about mutual tariffs have not yet been disclosed.

According to economists, global trade of about $33 trillion will be at risk, and exports to the United States for some countries may decrease by 4-90%. The global trade policy uncertainty index has reached a record high since 2009.

Goldman Sachs analysts predict an increase in the average tariff in the United States by 15 percentage points this year, which could lead to higher inflation, slower economic growth and an increased risk of recession. Bloomberg Economics economists warn that maximum measures could increase average tariff rates in the United States by 28 percentage points, which would reduce U.S. GDP by 4% and raise prices by almost 2.5% over 2-3 years.

Shang-Jin Wei, a professor at Columbia Business School, compares the current situation with the stagflationary crisis of the 1970s caused by the oil shock, and warns of the risk of «a repeat of negative experiences due to unnecessary and avoidable political choices.»

In general, it is expected that the potential targets of the US tariff policy may be the European Union, Mexico, Canada, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and India, while imports from China are already subject to an additional 20% levy.